Trump 2.0: US Policy Shifts Amid a Changing Middle East Landscape
Wednesday, August 13th, 1:00 – 2:00 PM Central Online.
By Brian Katulis
Nearly seven months into the second Trump administration, the Middle East has featured more prominently in overall U.S. foreign policy. The start of this term has been marked by a high operations tempo for the United States and included President Trump’s Gulf trip; a major policy shift to lift sanctions on Syria and meet with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa; U.S. military strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites along with U.S. support for a 12-day Israeli military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear program, military leadership, and infrastructure; and diplomacy in the region led by prominent Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Tom Barrack.
The impact of these major actions by the United States in the Middle East remains mixed. Close U.S. partners in the Middle East, particularly the countries Trump visited in May, have seen new opportunities to deepen strategic, economic, energy, technological, and military ties with the United States. However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs and broader trade war may ultimately undercut these openings to strengthen bilateral ties and incentivize regional partners to diversify their global economic relationships.
Iran, Israel-Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen remain the three major unresolved variables in the Middle East equation. While Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure suffered considerable damage, it is unclear if these actions will produce a lasting resolution to concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and destabilizing actions. The weakest link in U.S. policy in the Middle East remains the Israel-Palestinian front as the war between Israel and Hamas continues. In contrast, Syria and Lebanon represent key openings for U.S. policy and engagement, but this will require sustained U.S. diplomatic engagement in the months and years ahead.
This presentation will assess whether Trump 2.0’s overall foreign policy approach—characterized by transactional diplomacy, selective military engagement, and attempts to use America’s economic power to gain global leverage—is likely to produce a more durable and sustainable security environment in the Middle East, amid a rapidly evolving regional landscape.
Brian Katulis is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specializing in US foreign policy and national security. He hosts the MEI podcast series Taking the Edge Off the Middle East and authors the column “Making Sense: A Weekly Take on US Foreign Policy.” Katulis draws on decades of experience living and working in the Middle East, where he has forged relationships of trust and confidence across the region with top leaders in government, the private sector, media, national security, and thought leaders from a wide variety of international organizations.
As a foreign policy strategist and senior fellow, Katulis has produced influential studies that have shaped key regional policy debates and provided expert testimony to congressional committees on his findings. Prior to MEI, he was a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP), where he built the center’s Middle East program. His career also includes significant experience at the National Security Council, the US Department of State, and the US Department of Defense.
Katulis co-authored The Prosperity Agenda (2008) with Nancy Soderberg, a book that examines how America’s economic advantages can be used to positively shape global dynamics. He is also frequently quoted in leading news publications and media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The New York Times, The Washington Post, National Public Radio, and PBS Newshour.
He holds a Master in Public Affairs from Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs and a BA in History and Arab and Islamic Studies from Villanova University. He was a Fulbright Scholar in Amman, Jordan from 1994-1995, where he conducted a research project on the peace process between Israel and Jordan.
